How to spend $20 using Epicenter in the KY Derby

May 04, 2022 Kevin Kilroy

The Kentucky Derby (G1) is a historical moment in its own right, but this year even more so because the all-time winningest trainer in North America is going to win his first Kentucky Derby.

Long on the duck at 0-for-23, Steve Asmussen has the best horse in the race, #3 Epicenter (7-2). 

Epicenter has been nearly flawless this winter at Fair Grounds. Beating tough fields in the Risen Star S. (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2), this colt has not had to go all-out in the final furlong. When he does in the Kentucky Derby, it will bring Asmussen to tears, and his backers will be cheersing mint juleps. 

If the morning line odds hold up, $20 to win pays us $70. Not bad. But since I'm confident Epicenter will win, let’s take a look at the trifecta where a simple ticket will pay better. 

Keeping $20 as our budget, let’s build a $1 trifecta where Epicenter has to win, and any of our other contenders can run second or third. Trifecta payoffs are always juicy because with 20 entries, the Kentucky Derby is one of the hardest races to get right.

When you see him on the track you’ll understand why #10 Zandon (3-1) was made the favorite. A muscular beast who touts his fitness each morning, Chad Brown’s entry has one of the strongest late kicks. He will surely get a piece of the prize and is a definite use underneath. We want more than the chalk though, so let’s talk higher-odds horses to make sure our risk gets its due reward.

Here are the other colts who I believe are in the best form and ready to run on Saturday:

• #6 Messier (8-1) is fast, experienced, and can get the distance.
• #7 Crown Pride (20-1) won the UAE Derby (G2) and his trainer reports he has progressed, which Crown Pride's morning works verify as he is bursting with run.
• Florida Derby (G1) winner #15 White Abarrio (10-1) has progressed in recent races and has the running style to be at the front of midpack, positioning him to get first run on the pretenders.
• #16 Cyberknife (20-1), according to his trainer Brad Cox, has been training the best of any Derby contender.

• 3 with 6, 7, 10, 15, 16 with 6, 7, 10, 15, 16
  = $20

(Note in case you are wondering why it costs $20: that is 20 trifecta combinations built into one ticket. Using more or less horses in the second and third positions would increase or decrease the cost.)

Epicenter with Zandon, Crown Pride, Messier, White Abarrio, Cyberknife with Zandon, Crown Pride, Messier, White Abarrio, Cyberknife.

Bet the Kentucky Derby on TwinSpires.com!