Expert Pick of the Week: 2023 Kentucky Oaks

May 02, 2023 John Mucciolo/TwinSpires.com

A full group of sophomore fillies will run 1 1/8 miles on the Churchill Downs main track in the $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks (G1) on Friday. Conditioner Brad Cox has a fine trio of contenders for the affair, and I expect the race to go through two of those fillies in the overflow field of 17. Only 14 are allowed to start.

Wet Paint is 4-for-4 on dirt in her lifetime and rolls into her Grade 1 debut off a trio of stakes wins in succession, led by impressive triumphs in the Fantasy (G3) and Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn Park this season.

The Godolphin homebred went unplaced on turf in her first outing as a juvenile but has finished first or second in each of her five assignments since that unveiling. Wet Paint doesn’t own much early speed, but the bay filly possesses a robust turn-of-foot that has seen her win in last-to-first fashion in two of her three most recent performances. 

Wet Paint has posted hefty Brisnet Late Pace ratings of 107-108-102 this campaign and might improve off of those while tackling 1 1/8 miles for the initial time. Wet Paint is bred to handle the added ground with ease in her Churchill bow, and she has trained well on the local oval as of late. Jockey Flavien Prat, who is unblemished atop the formidable late runner, will be in the silks once again. 

The main danger to the morning line choice will come from stablemate Botanical, who has been superb in four straight victories on the synthetic Tapeta surface at Turfway Park. By Medaglia d’Oro out of a mare by Blame, Botanical has improved her Brisnet Speed rating in each career try to date and has trained well leading up to this major test. 

Botanical has won while being on the front end, and also when running from off the early pace, and she will be tough to hold off if she takes to the dirt in her debut on the surface. Chris Landeros, who has piloted the filly in each affair during her impressive win streak, will be in the stirrups. I fully expect the talented sophomore to be forcing the issue from the opening bell on Friday.

An exacta box with #7 Wet Paint and #6 Botanical in the 2023 Kentucky Oaks is the Best Bet of the Week.