Importance of early-season BRIS Speed Ratings for Kentucky Derby contenders

Jan 25, 2018 by James Scully/Brisnet.com

The higher the BRIS Speed rating the better. And when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, the winner always receives at least a triple-digit number (100 or more).

But the Kentucky Derby isn’t held until the first Saturday in May and it’s fair to ask: how important are early-season BRIS Speed ratings by Kentucky Derby contenders?

The answer depends on the individual.

Lightly-raced horses without stakes experience don’t need to run a big number early in their 3-year-old season. Anything too low can be a negative (I use 85 as a baseline) but as the chart below shows, three Kentucky Derby winners this century opened their sophomore campaigns with a figure in the mid-to-high 80s.

Horses competing in the maiden or allowance ranks are often still in the early stages of development and their BRIS Speed ratings can increase dramatically as they move forward from race-to-race.

Since the turn of the century, 12-of-18 Kentucky Derby winners (66%) had stakes experience at age 2. But regardless of how well they performed as juveniles, they must continue to move forward or else the competition catches up and surpasses them.

That makes early-season Speed numbers more relevant because nobody wants to see a significant drop-off from juvenile stakes attempts. A slight decrease in the 3-year-old debut isn’t a serious concern because plenty of time still remains, but a 10+ point decline can make me wary of an individual.

Only five eventual Kentucky Derby winners opened their sophomore seasons with a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating since 2000.

Early-season BRIS Speed ratings have value, but these performances serve as building blocks toward having a 3-year-old at his (or her) peak on Kentucky Derby Day.

BRIS Speed ratings earned by Kentucky Derby winners in their first start at age 3:

HORSE		RACE (FINISH)		BRIS SPEED
Always Dreaming (2017)		Maiden (1st)		89
Nyquist		San Vicente (1st)		103
American Pharoah		Rebel (1st)		99
California Chrome		Cal Cup Derby (1st)		94
Orb		Allowance (1st)		89
I’ll Have Another		Robert Lewis (1st)		102
Animal Kingdom		Allowance (2nd)		92
Super Saver		Tampa Bay Derby (3rd)		99
Mine That Bird		Borderland Derby (2nd)		87
Big Brown		Allowance		102
Street Sense		Tampa Bay Derby (1st)		105
Barbaro		Tropical Park Derby (1st)		97
Giacomo		Sham (3rd)		98
Smarty Jones		Count Fleet (1st)		103
Funny Cide		Holy Bull (5th)		97
War Emblem		Lecomte (5th)		94
Monarchos		Maiden (1st)		98
Fusaichi Pegasus		Maiden (1st)		98