Triple-digit BRIS Speed Rating Watch for final round of Kentucky Derby preps

Mar 23, 2018 by James Scully/Brisnet.com

It gets serious for Kentucky Derby prospects over the next four weekends as the final round of major prep races begins Saturday with the $1 million TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds. Worth a combined 170 points (100-40-20-10 scale) toward a Kentucky Derby berth, the Louisiana Derby serves as the first of seven races designed to separate contenders from pretenders.

Kentucky Derby winners tend to earn triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings from the final two prep races. Horses are taking more of a lightly-raced approach toward the first Saturday in May in recent years, but the triple-digit baseline has remained constant for decades.

A number of prominent names failed to reach the threshold in the penultimate prep this year, including Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic and McKinzie, and how fast they run next time will be more important than whether they win or lose.

Below are the last two BRIS Speed ratings of Kentucky Derby winners over the past 20 years. For practical purposes, we’ll exclude Mine That Bird, who earned lower Speed numbers before delivering an “impossible” 50-1 upset in 2009; and Animal Kingdom, who didn’t run on dirt before arriving at Churchill Downs in 2011.

Kentucky Derby Winner BRIS Speed Ratings (last two preps):

ALWAYS DREAMING (2017):	102 (final prep)
	84 (penultimate prep)
NYQUIST (2016):	97
	103
AMERICAN PHAROAH (2015):	102
	99
CALIFORNIA CHROME (2014):	106
	102
ORB (2013):	97
	102
I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (2012):	98
	102
SUPER SAVER (2010):	99
	99
BIG BROWN (2008):	110
	102
STREET SENSE (2007):	98
	105
BARBARO (2006):	104
	104
GIACOMO (2005):	100
	96
SMARTY JONES (2004):	105
	109
FUNNY CIDE (2003):	111
	103
WAR EMBLEM (2002):	109
	105
MONARCHOS (2001):	108
	108
FUSAICHI PEGASUS (2000):	110
	103
CHARISMATIC (1999):	104
	94
REAL QUIET (1998):	107
	103

Analysis

Super Saver, who never won again after posting a minor upset over a sloppy track, is the only one above without a triple-digit figure and 16 Kentucky Derby winners over the past 20 years have earned at least a 102 in the last two prep races.

The following horses earned a 102 or better in the penultimate prep this year:

Audible:	105
Enticed:	104
Justify:	104
Promises Fulfilled:	104

Catholic Boy (101), Magnum Moon (100) and Strike Power (101) are in decent shape as well with a triple-digit Speed rating from their last start.

From the 18 Kentucky Derby winners listed above, 11 (61%) increased their BRIS Speed ratings in the final prep. And five of those showed at least a 7-point jump: Always Dreaming (18 points), Big Brown (8), Charismatic (10), Funny Cide (8), Fusaichi Pegaus (7).

Five winners showed a decrease in the final prep (I’ll Have Another, Nyquist, Orb, Smarty Jones and Street Sense) and three paired up (Barbaro, Monarchos and Super Saver).